Thursday, April 27, 2006

It's Who You Know

A new filing by BMAC to the DOT. Go to the bottom of page 17 of the PDF (page 8 of the appendix) for an explanation of exactly how this airline survives.

Thursday, April 20, 2006

Boston-Maine Investigation

There is no news on this subject. We guess it takes a long time to do an investigation like this. It probably doesn't help that the Transportation IG stepped down in February. Anyway...we're keeping our eyes on it.

Morgan Stanley and Skybus

We have heard from multiple sources that Morgan Stanley ended up putting in a significant chunk of Skybus' equity themselves (as opposed to acting as agent). We will classify this as a rumor right now...but if it is true it would be very interesting to us.

Friday, April 14, 2006

Festival Airlines Looking at Mesa

Embedded in this article about Vision Air's inaugural flight is a quote from the Mesa COC saying prelim discussions with Festival have begun about flights to Rockford and Pensacola.

By the way, there are still no filings about Festival in the dockets.

Friday, April 07, 2006

Sun Country Suffers Setback With Planned Equity Infusion

Tom Petters did not exercise his rights under a tentative agreement to infuse equity capital into Sun Country. Details for the decision were not disclosed and we have not heard anything behind the scenes. This, combined with the loss of key people very recently and the pending lawsuit against the airline all represent a sudden about face on our estimation of their prospects since only 45 days ago.

Vision Air To Fly Scheduled Charter

Vision Air will begin scheduled charter service from Mesa to North Las Vegas.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

The Value of a Good Lawyer

Excellent news here about Skybus.

As long as you have a strategy and legal team that can lock this airport down, then we are very much behind their apparent interest in Meachem Field. It is an airport that we have supported for quite some time as a new entrant focus city.

It has all the key ingredients:
-Large demo profile that, with all things being equal, would choose the airport over the current airport
-Zero competition
-Limited airside facilities (helps to keep competitors out)

Of course the major downside to FTW is the unpredictability of what AA will do. Skybus needs to lease every acre of space available at that airport right now and make sure those agreements are air tight.

Then, of course, they will need to:
-Fly non-stop to the places people want to fly to as a full focus city (definitely not CMH non-stop)
-Offer a very low fare (due to their understanding of the true drivers of low costs by an LCC)
-Provide a tolerable onboard product
-Do everything not to screw up the huge advantage of going out of a smaller, yet more convenient airport

Mark our words here...if they choose airports with similar characterisitcs as FTW as focus cities Skybus will not only be successful, they will be wildly successful. Of course the article explicitly states that they are looking at FTW as an outstation.

We should not close this post without mentioning for the umpteenth time that we do not at all like Columbus as their first focus city.

Just Watching the Wheels...

Not much has gone on this week to grab our attention...that is why we haven't posted.

We do wonder how Boston-Maine took the news of Southwest's IAD announcement. When you have as little capacity as BMAC does and given that they have very different target markets, we are inclined to say it will have little to no impact.

Saturday, April 01, 2006

Another Startup Coming...

The new airline that we referred to in the last sentence in this post seems to be coming together very quickly. We can't release anything else on this yet, but it seems to be on its way. More info to come...